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China has seen an extraordinary economic transformation over the past four decades. But major questions are being asked, both inside China and outside, about the need for change, and about the transition to a more sustainable model for the coming decades. Premier Li Keqiang said earlier this year that 2019 is a ‘crucial year’ for the Chinese economy.
'Is China's growth model sustainable?' is probably one of the most important questions asked about not just China itself, but also in relation to the consequences for Asia and for the global economic system of the path China takes. In this presentation, George Magnus will consider China's prospects and their global implications through two lenses. One focuses on four potential domestic traps that are seen as at the centre of current decision-making: debt, the Yuan, a rapidly ageing population, and the middle income trap. The second features China's economic engagement with the US and rest of the world through its trade and investment relationships, and through the Belt and Road initiative.
About the speaker
George Magnus is an independent economist and commentator, and Research Associate at the China Centre, Oxford University, and at SOAS, London. He writes and broadcasts regularly in leading media outlets, and his written work can be found at www.georgemagnus.com
George was the Chief Economist, and then Senior Economic Adviser at UBS Investment Bank from 1995-2016. He previously worked as the Chief Economist at SG Warburg and before that at Bank of America in London and San Francisco.
George’s current book, Red Flags: why Xi’s China is in Jeopardy was published in September 2018 and a paperback edition with a new preface is expected in the autumn. His earlier books are The Age of Aging, and Uprising: will emerging markets shape or shake the world economy?
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